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Prediction for CME (2024-06-01T20:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-06-01T20:00Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/31269/-1
CME Note: A CME to the SE with a complex uneven (pointy) front that comes on the heels of and overlaps with the preceding (2024-06-01T19:12Z) halo CME. There might also be an fainter wider front associated with it as well but the identification of it is hard because of the outflows following the 2024-06-01T19:12Z CME. The source of this CME could be the M7.3 flare from Active Region 3697 (S20E21) peaking at 2024-06-01T19:40Z and an associated eruption signified by post-eruptive arcades and a somewhat more eastern dimming centered very approximately around (S20E25). From Carlos Perez Alanis (LASSOS team): Possible arrival signature of this CME is likely blended with/directly follows the arrival of an expected coronal hole high speed stream around 2024-06-03T20:43Z. The ICME shock is possibly seen around 2024-06-03T21:00Z, while the arrival of the flux rope is likely seen around 2024-06-03T21:30Z, where the Betta parameter (e.g. in Wind daily solar wind survey) drops. The possible end of the flux-rope is possibly around 2024-06-05T6Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-06-03T21:40Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-06-04T17:19Z (-23.0h, +23.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 70.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: IZMIRAN
Prediction Method Note:

Initial CME velocity = 800 km/s
Background SW velocity = 350 km/s
Heliolongitude = 20 deg

Lead Time: 14.40 hour(s)
Difference: -19.65 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Nataly Shlyk (IZMIRAN) on 2024-06-03T07:16Z

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